How Covid Pandemic End Look Like?

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Majority of people are already experience the pandemic fatigue after almost three years of Covid-19 interference in our daily functioning of life. Now, some health experts are weighing in how the end of endemic look like next year?

Cory Stieg of CNBC make it summarized in a Dec 9 article Bill Gates’s recent blog post writing that Gates’s prediction was “At some point next year, Covid-19 will become an endemic disease in most places.

It’s very unlikely that we’re ever going to be able to get rid of Covid.

– Dr. Timothy Brewer, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health (source: CNBC Make It)

The following is CNBC Make It summary of how experts think the pandemic could finally end next year, and that’ll look like:

  • What the ‘end of the pandemic’ really means? “The first step is getting enough people vaccinated against Covid to downgrade the disease’s pandemic status. … the layers of immunity will probably help make endemic Covid cases even less severe than today’s hospitalizations and deaths.
  • What living with Covid could look like? “Living with Covid will require a shift in mindset. ‘We have to stop acting like if we do everything right, we’re going to make this virus completely go away. Rather, people should try to “minimize the health and economic consequences as much as possible, and get on with our lives” ‘ – Dr. Timothy Brewer
  • How omicron and other variants factor into the timeline? “Brewer says the emergence of new variants isn’t particularly surprising, and shouldn’t affect the world’s ability to shift Covid from pandemic to endemic. ‘A variant that manages to escape vaccine-induced immunity and causes severe infection would spell out significantly more trouble. Whether or not this type of variant emerges is the open question. I think it’s definitely possible’ – Aubree Gordon, an infectious disease epidemiologist and associate professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Michigan.

In a Scientific American OpEd article, Hayley A. Gans and Yvonne A. Maldonado write “Boosters Can Help End the COVID Pandemic. The extra shot doesn’t mean that vaccines are ineffective; our bodies just need a reminder.”

Public Opinions Poll

According to a recent IPSOS poll, there is no consensus on when and how the pandemic would end and what would signal the end of the pandemic?

The 33 countries the IPSOS poll surveyed, the majority don’t expect it’ll happen any time soon and the highlighted the following prevalent views:

  • “A 75% vaccination rate in Peru, Turkey, Switzerland, Colombia, Romania, Argentina, and India, and globally among those with a higher level of education.
  • “The complete stop of the virus transmission in China and Italy.
  • “Hospitals operating normally for at least one month in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Singapore.
  • “Less than 10 new cases per million people per day in Singapore.
  • ” ‘Don’t know‘ in France, Canada, the United States, Germany, and Great Britain, and globally among those with a lower level of education (primary or secondary only) and those with a lower income level.
  • ” ‘The pandemic has already stopped‘ in Saudi Arabia, China, Hungary, and Malaysia

The Scientic American writes: “We have achieved a remarkable feat: science has led to the rapid development of safe and effective vaccines within a year of SARS-CoV-2 emerging in humans. Together with public health measures, vaccines can mitigate the impacts of this historic pandemic. It is now imperative that we take the next steps to ensure that our global community is fully vaccinated, which include first doses, but also, when it’s time, boosters. Doing so will change the trajectory of this pandemic by creating a more sustained response to this ubiquitous virus.”

Coronavirus-19 vaccination watch

According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID vaccination tracker page (as of Jan 9, 9 a.m.) 639,673,115 doses have been distributed and 519,335,422 doses administered. According MDH COVID-19 Response vaccine data (as of Jan 5) a total of 8,825,025 doses of Covid-19 (Pfizer & Moderna) vaccines have been administered in Minnesota. According to the MDH latest tally (as of Jan 7) the confirmed COVID-19 cases in Minnesota are 1,064,065 (out of 16,582,622 tested) with 10,766 deaths.