Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told The Atlantic reporter Ed Young “There will be a whole lot of pain in the first quarter of 2021”.

In the The Atlantic article ” Where Year Two of the Pandemic Will Take Us” Ed Young writes that 30 epidemiologists, physicians, immunologists, sociologists, and historians that he interviewed for the article are “cautiously optimistic that the U.S. is headed for a better summer. But they emphasized that such a world, though plausible, is not inevitable. Its realization hinges on successfully executing the most complicated vaccination program in U.S. history, on persuading a frayed and fractured nation to continue using masks and avoiding indoor crowds, on countering the growing quagmire of misinformation, and on successfully monitoring and countering changes in the virus itself.”

Think about next summer as a marker for when we might be able to breathe again. But there’s almost a year’s worth of work that needs to happen in those six months.

Loyce Pace, the executive director of a nonprofit called the Global Health Council and a member of Biden’s COVID-19 task force (source: The Atlantic)

It’s a general exception that availability of the covid vaccines should make difference in year-two. “Having vaccines is not the same as achieving vaccinations. .. Vaccines must then be distributed and deployed. .. If vaccines are successfully distributed, Americans must agree to get them. As of earlier this month, 27 percent said they wouldn’t get a free COVID-19 vaccine, though that proportion had fallen since September. .. Many Black Americans, too, are understandably suspicious of the vaccines and the broader medical establishment after regularly receiving discriminatory care, hearing about the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, and seeing family members die of COVID-19,” writes Ed Young.

“No matter what SARS-CoV-2 does in the future, the fallout from America’s year-long failure to control it will continue. On the surface, the country will seem to heal. But even as schools begin to operate normally and social life resumes, scars newly reopened will widen, while wounds freshly formed will fester.”

Healthcare correspondence of The Economist, Slavea Chankova writes that due to availability of vaccines and cheap, rapid tests should make a difference in the year-two of the pandemic.

The basics will remain the same. Masks and avid hand-washing will still be necessary. People will give others a wider berth in public spaces without even thinking about it. But as the pandemic enters the second year, be prepared for changes in three areas: testing, quarantine rules and guidelines for social distancing.

The Economist

Ed Young further adds, “Slowly, life will feel safer. Masks will still be common, and public spaces may be less populated. But many of the joys that 2020 stripped away could gradually (if patchily) return—the joys of indoor dining, the thrill of a crowd, the touch of a loved one.”

• Where Year Two of the Pandemic Will Take Us
• We’re entering year two of the pandemic. Here’s what happens next
• What to expect in year two of the pandemic

In CNN, Faith Karimi predicts the following in the second year of the pandemic:

• The next few months will be rough: We’ve had a tough holiday season — and things aren’t expected to get better for at least the next few weeks.
• Officials will have to move faster on vaccinations: Sleeves are rolling up across the country for the highly effective Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The initial rollout has been bumpy. Some states have not receive enough supplies of vaccine.
• The vaccines won’t fully protect people right away: The vaccine process will take months and it’s still important for everyone to wear masks and social distance until we reach herd immunity — that magical point when so many people are inoculated that the virus has nowhere left to spread.
• Scientists worry more cases of a new strain will emerge: A new, more contagious variant of the virus circulating in the UK has recently been discovered in Colorado, California and Florida, and at least 36 countries. Health experts are rushing to slow the spread of Covid-19 before more strains complicate vaccination efforts.
• But there’s hope of herd immunity in 2021: Herd immunity will be achieved if about 70% to 85% of the population gets vaccinated. Once we reach that threshold, the spread of infections becomes much less likely.

On the lessons learned, Ed Young writes:

“In the coming years, the full toll of the pandemic will become clearer, as researchers calculate more accurate estimates of how many lives were affected and lost. A blizzard of investigations by independent commissions will assess how governments and agencies fared against the virus. Helpfully, the coronavirus pandemic has been documented extensively, providing an unparalleled trove of real-time accounts.”