In a report the University of the Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) researchers predict that ‘the new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years—until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected’ according to the CNN reporting.

Talking to the CNN, a well recognized pandemic expert Mike Osterholm, the director of CIDRAP recommended that the “US prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted.” According the CNN, Osterholm has been writing about the risk of pandemics for 20 years and has advised several presidents.

This thing’s not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people. The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology.

Mike Osterholm, Director of CIDRAP (source: CNN)

The current report was jointly prepared by Osterholm along with another top expert on pandemics Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist, Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist & medical director of CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, author of 1918 flue pandemic “The Great Influenza“. Their key recommendations from the report include:

• States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (which involves a large second peak of cases in the fall of 2020), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
• Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
• Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for re-instituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
• Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years.

The report authors write that ‘COVID-19 appears to spread more easily than flu because of a longer incubation period and more spread among people who have no symptoms’.

RELATED RESOURCES

• Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery | CNN
• COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint | CIDRAP