In a recent New York Times article, science and global health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli writes “The Coronavirus Is Plotting a Comeback“. Though daily reported cases of coronavirus in US and around the globe are decreasing, health experts are warning that another variant-driven surge is in the horizon.

Dr Michael Osterholm, director of Center of Infectious Didease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota told CNN that though cases in US are in a downward trend, he expects an increase in cases to occur in the next few weeks due to a highly contagious UK B.1.1.4 variant, which “double about every 10 days in this country”.

It often takes four, six, even eight weeks of this virus circulating before it really takes off, going from kind of the small little brush pile fire to a large forest fire. He is concerned once we get to around the third week of March. … it’s a no brainer, but we’ve got to act on it soon because this variant isn’t waiting for us to get our act together.

Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP (source: CNN)

Dr. Tom Frieden, former Director of US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told CNN that “The question that hangs in the balance right now is, will we have a fourth surge? Every uncontrolled spread increases the risk that there will be dangerous variants that can be more infectious, more deadly, or can escape from immune protection.”

Scientists call it the fourth wave. The new variants mean “we’re essentially facing a pandemic within a pandemic”.

Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (source: The New York Times)

But scientists believe that this time around, a widespread surge could be blunted by vaccines, writes Apoorva in The Times. “So far, the two vaccines authorized in the United States are spectacularly effective, and after a slow start, the vaccination rollout is picking up momentum. A third vaccine is likely to be authorized shortly, adding to the nation’s supply.”

Health experts warn that we must follow health safety measures that has been working. “To track very closely and recognize masking up is here to stay for many more months and avoiding sharing indoor air with others is very important,” Dr Friedan told CNN.

Agrees, Dr Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health. “Such measures can help avoid the potential surge feared from the coronavirus variant first identified in the UK that is believed to be more transmissible”.

Times reporter Apoorva asks “Can Americans desperate for normalcy keep wearing masks and distancing themselves from family and friends? How much longer can communities keep businesses, offices and schools closed?”

“But if Americans let down their guard too soon — many states are already lifting restrictions — and if the variants spread in the United States as they have elsewhere, another spike in cases may well arrive in the coming weeks.”

• The Coronavirus Is Plotting a Comeback. Here’s Our Chance to Stop It for Good.
• Another Covid-19 surge hangs in the balance. This is how experts say we keep it from becoming reality.

Some Hopeful Signs by Summer

Analyzing the current downward pandemic trend, The Times‘s Apoorva sees some hopeful signs of some normalcy by summer.

• The declines are real, but they disguise worrying trends. “Very, very high case numbers are not a good thing, even if the trend is downward. Taking the first hint of a downward trend as a reason to reopen is how you get to even higher numbers,” Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston told The Times. According to many researchers, “the downward curve of infections with the original coronavirus disguises an exponential rise in infections with B.1.1.7, the variant first identified in Britain,” writes Apporva.
• Another wave may be coming, but it can be minimized. The majority of scientists interviewed by The Times predicted “a fourth wave of infections” by late March or April. ‘But they stressed that it is not an inevitable surge, if government officials and individuals maintain precautions for a few more weeks’ writes Apoorva.
• Summer will feel like summer again, sort of. “Assuming that we keep a close eye on things in the summer and don’t go crazy, I think that we could look forward to a summer that is looking more normal, but hopefully in a way that is more carefully monitored than last summer,” a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, Emma Hodcroft told the Times.

Dr Shweta Bansal, an infectious disease modeler at Georgetown University, told the Times “It’s not zero and it’s not 100 — exactly where that number is will be important. It needs to be pretty darn high for us to be able to get away with vaccinating anything below 100 percent of the population, so that’s definitely something we’re watching.”