US Reaches 5M Cases Milestone

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Day 136: Stay Safe Minnesota

Influential coronavirus model projects nearly 300,000 people could die in the US by December

In yesterday’s short-post, I wrote that coronavirus cases are increasing in many states including in Minnesota. According to media reports, most of these recent increases are the results of people (especially the younger generation) socializing and not following guidelines.

The US topped 5 million cases of coronavirus early Sunday — and as experts have highlighted before, the true number of infections could be many times higher, write the CNN. This figure is about a fourth of global cases of the virus and topping the list with the most reported deaths in the world. In the US, five states (California, Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia) together hold more than 40% of all infections.

Updated Covid-19 Projection Model

In the Forbes, staff writer Lisette Voytko writes: “The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now predicts almost 300,000 Americans will die from the disease by Dec. 1, an 86% increase from the current death toll, and a 260% increase from the institute’s launch of its coronavirus model in March, showing how much the outbreak in the U.S. has worsened.”

We’re seeing a rollercoaster as people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase. When infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures which leads to more infections and the deadly cycle starts over again.

Ali Mokdad, a University of Washington professor who works on the model in a tweet (source: Forbes)

“America’s Covid-19 death toll is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by December 1; however, consistent mask-wearing beginning today could save about 70,000 lives, according to new data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine,” a statement said. – From the CNN.

The model doesn’t have to come true. The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths.

Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME Director (source: CNN)

Dr Murray told CNN during its global coronavirus town hall on Thursday Aug 6 night that ‘a face mask is one of the most simple and “inexpensive” things people can wear to help fight the spread of Covid-19 in the US’.

It’s rare that you see something so simple, so inexpensive, so easy for everybody to participate and have such an extraordinary impact in the US, but also all over the world actually. It’s quite extraordinary.

Dr Murray to CNN
Coronavirus Pandemic Watch

According to the MDH latest tally (as of Aug 9, 11 a.m.) the confirmed COVID-19 cases in Minnesota are 60,898 (out of 1,159,139 tested) with 1,657 deaths. According to Johns Hopkins database (as of Aug 9, 2:35 p.m.) there are 5,032,299 confirmed covid19 infection with 162,751 deaths. Globally the covid19 virus has infected 19,720,406 with 728,549 deaths.